Friday 10 December 2021
When considering COVID-19 case and vaccine statistics it is extremely important that the situation is considered in the whole as opposed to single data sets at a specific point in time.
Context is important as the picture moves so rapidly, for example we are currently going through a peak period whereas other jurisdictions had earlier, and much higher, peaks. Next week the picture will no doubt change again.
Part of living responsibly with COVID-19 is the need for data to be reported responsibly. You may have read the headline in the Guernsey Press today that Guernsey's COVID-19 rate is now the highest in Britain, and this may understandably have been concerning to some. The article included a number of statistical comparisons between the Bailiwick, and other jurisdictions - namely the number of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 and our vaccination uptake.
Today's coverage was disappointing, as publishing such a headline without providing any context will only serve to increase levels of public fear and anxiety. It also impacts on the wellbeing of our community along with potentially damaging our economy in the retail and hospitality sectors.
Due to the complexity of the data, the States of Guernsey asked for an additional 24 hours in which to fully respond to the request from the Guernsey Press for us to check the data they had collated and self-calculated. We asked for this additional time as the Public Health team are incredibly busy and were yesterday prioritising other urgent matters, such as contact tracing. Unfortunately, that was declined.
We thought nonetheless that it would be helpful for the community to see the statement we had been preparing, to provide additional context around the data, which is below:
Cases per 100,000 is a statistic used by a number of jurisdictions.
As of 9 December 2021, our 7- and 14-day incidence per 100,000 were 836 and 1,980 respectively.
The rates in Jersey as of 9 December 2021 shows their 7- and 14-day incidence per 100,000 were 777 and 1,563 respectively.
As a community we are living responsibly with COVID-19. Cases are being managed with minimal restrictions on us as residents. Some other jurisdictions have more restrictions in place.
We regularly monitor the incidence of COVID-19 in the Bailiwick compared to nearby jurisdictions, using data sourced from WHO, and this is shown in the below graph. This highlights the time differences in the wave of infections, with Jersey and the Isle of Man experiencing large waves over the summer, whilst our delta wave of infection has occurred later.
Over the last week our 7-day rolling average of new cases has decreased from 111 on the 3rd December 2021 to 85 on the 9th December 2021. As ever we are cautious about over-emphasising improvements until these are sustained, but nevertheless this 7-day change is important context when looking at the current picture in the island. We will be monitoring the situation closely over the next week.
Trying to compare vaccine data is tricky as not every jurisdiction publishes its data in the same way. We have, therefore, provided a comparison of data where we are certain that we are comparing like with like. As you can see from the below table, the doses per 100 population shows the Bailiwick is lower than Jersey. However, when you compare specific population groups, the Bailiwick's vaccination programme is progressing extremely well. This demonstrates the danger of relying on single data points published without context.
The total number of doses per 100 population is an internationally used statistic for vaccination figures and is based on total number of individual doses. Therefore, in this case it does not equate to the total number of people vaccinated against COVID-19. The dose regime for a number of COVID-19 vaccines is two doses, some are required to have 3 doses and a proportion of the population are now being offered a booster dose.
Our data tells us that 61% of those aged 50 or over have received a booster and 93% of adults have had two doses. As we do not have the raw data from Jersey it is not possible to make direct comparisons and caution should be taken about making assumptions from data that has been compared in such ways. We did advise the Guernsey Press of this yesterday.
As we have previously advised, the Bailiwick is ramping up its booster programme to ensure everyone aged 18 or over has received a booster dose of vaccine by the end of January 2022 if they wish to have one.
To this end, the Community Vaccination Centre is now open 7 days a week between 9.30am and 8pm.
If you are interested in comparing the Bailiwick's COVID-19 case numbers with similar-sized communities, the following link includes data for upper and lower tier local authorities in the UK Cases in the UK | Coronavirus in the UK (data.gov.uk)
