This page contains information on Guernsey's economic activity, measured by the Gross Value Added (GVA) of each sector and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the Island.
- Guernsey's total GDP for 2021 is estimated at £3,446 million, which is 10% higher (in nominal terms) than the central estimate for 2020 and 6% higher in real terms (after adjustment using the RPI).
- Guernsey GDP per capita in 2021 is estimated at £54,329; 10% higher in nominal terms than the 2020 central estimate and 5% higher in real terms.
- The finance sector remains the largest single contributor (with a GVA of £1,243 million in 2021), accounting for 36% of the total GDP (or 41% of the total Factor income, which sums industry sectors only and excludes the GVA of households). The GVA of the finance sector increased by 7% in nominal terms and 3% in real terms between 2020 and 2021, following a decline of 8% in nominal terms and 9% in real terms between 2019 and 2020.
- The largest percentage increase in GVA between 2020 and 2021 was within the Transport and Storage sector at 92% in nominal terms and 84% in real terms and follows a decline of 64% in both nominal and real terms during 2020. This sector contributed 1% of 2021 GDP.
- The largest percentage decrease in GVA between 2020 and 2021 was in the Professional, business, scientific and technical activities sector, at 2% in nominal terms and -2% in real terms. This follows growth of 12% in nominal terms and 11% in real terms for this sector during 2020.
There is more information in the methodology section below on how GDP relates to GVA and Factor income.
Methodology
- GVA, is calculated as the sum of:
- Compensation of employees (which includes remuneration in the form of wages paid to employees plus estimates of pension and social security contributions paid on their behalf by their employer)
- Gross operating surplus (which is equated to company trading profits and public sector trading body surpluses)
- Mixed income (the remuneration and profits of sole traders)
- Income of households (rental income and owner occupied imputed rents, net of maintenance costs and borrowing costs)
- The sum of these elements gives the GVA for each sector:
- Agriculture, horticulture, fishing and quarrying
- Manufacturing
- Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply
- Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities
- Construction
- Wholesale, retail and repairs
- Hostelry
- Transport and storage
- Information and communication
- Finance
- Real estate activities
- Professional, business, scientific and technical activities
- Administrative and support service activities
- Public administration and trading bodies
- Education
- Human health, social and charitable work activities
- Arts, entertainment and recreation
- Other service activities
- Households
- (If the households sector is excluded, then this is known as Factor Income, rather than GVA).
- To calculate GVA at market prices, taxes on products are added and subsidies on products are deducted from the basic GVA figures. GDP is the sum (across all sectors) of GVA at market prices.
Methodological Improvements
- The income approach method used in Guernsey was revised in 2017, to better align it with the international standard defined by the United Nations.The revised method was audited by Gross Domestic Product statisticians from the Office for National Statistics. They confirmed that the revised methodology represented "a significant improvement in data quality", but that "the use of only the income approach to measuring GDP will always leave further room for improvements".
- As a result, the Data and Analysis team plan to investigate the feasibility and costs of introducing a second approach as well as implementing some further improvements to the income approach.
- The first step was the enactment of the Economic Statistics (Guernsey and Alderney) Law, 2019, which (having been approved for drafting by the States in November 2015) was approved in April 2020 and put into practice in September 2020. The legislation provides a gateway for the controlled sharing of some data provided to the States of Guernsey for Income Tax purposes with the Data & Analysis team, so it can be used for the purpose of providing economic statistics, such as GVA and GDP. It also enables the Economic Statistics Supervisor to request data from those contributing to the Guernsey economy.
- The second step involved the Data & Analysis team accessing data collected for Income Tax purposes and considering for its suitability in GVA and GDP calculations. This step ensured that the Economic Statistics Supervisor didn't later ask for data that had already been provided to the Revenue Service for Income Tax purposes.
- The third step was the introduction of an annual Economic Activity Return in 2022, to collect data needed for the calculations.
- Next steps will involve the Data & Analysis team asking employers to provide additional data via regular employer returns, which all employers paying employee tax instalments and/or social insurance contributions complete and investigating the feasibly and costs of introducing a second approach to calculating GVA and GDP.
- If you are interested in being involved in designing these changes or would like any further information, please contact dataandanalysis@gov.gg.
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