This page includes the latest Guernsey Retail Prices Indices and Household Costs Indices inflation statistics, which are published quarterly by the Data and Analysis team, along with further related information.
The inflation rates are based on the price changes of a "shopping basket" of items. The shopping basket and weights are periodically adjusted based on the results of household expenditure surveys. To see the results of past surveys and to find out more about the 2018/19 survey, go to www.gov.gg/hes.
The Retail Prices Indices [RPIs]
The latest annual percentage changes in the RPI inflation indices (over the year ending in September 2023) are as follows:
- The all items RPI increased by 7.0%
- The RPIX, which excludes mortgage interest payments, increased by 6.3%
- The RPICT, which excludes mortgage interest payments and the effect of changes to indirect taxes, increased by 6.1%
- The RPIY, which excludes mortgage interest payments and indirect taxes, increased by 6.2%
The latest Inflation Bulletin, which contains more details on all the RPIs, can be downloaded from this page, together with Supplementary and Historical Information and the Inflation Calculator, which can be used to work out the RPI or RPIX change over any time period and for any value of money you choose e.g. for a rent or maintenance review.
The New Household Costs Indices [HCIs]
In October 2022, a set of HCIs was added to the suite of price inflation indices published for Guernsey each quarter. These are designed to aid understanding of the differences in rates of price inflation being experienced by different types of household in Guernsey:
- Low income vs. high income households
- Households containing one or more child(ren) vs. households with none
- Households containing one or more retired person vs. households with none
- Households containing one or more person with a disability or long term illness that limits their activities vs. households with none
- Owner occupier households without mortgage vs. Owner occupier households with mortgage vs. Private renter households vs. Social renter and partial owner households
- Overall HCI (for reference)
Details of these are also included in the Inflation Bulletin, which can be downloaded from this page.
Over the year ending in September 2023:
- The index for Social renter and partial owner households was the HCI with the highest overall increase, at 8.2%. Staple goods and services increased by 8.6% and contributed 6.4ppts to the overall increase in this index.
- The index for Private renter households was the HCI with the lowest overall increase, at 5.7%. Staple goods and services increased by 5.8% and contributed 3.9ppts to the overall increase in this index.
- The HCIs that had above average contributions from staple goods and services to their rate of inflation were the ones for:
- - Owner occupier households with mortgages
- - Households containing one or more child(ren)
- - Social renter and partial owner households
- - Households containing no retired people
- - Households containing one or more person with a disability or long term illness that limits their activities
- - Low income households
RPI and RPIX Inflation Forecasts
The Inflation Forecast Bulletin provides forecasts for the RPIX and RPI for the next four quarters. Forecasts are based on historical trends, expectation of inflation in the UK, and forecast movements in the price of key commodities. Forecasts are revised and published on a quarterly basis in the month following publication of the Guernsey Inflation Bulletin.
The latest Inflation Forecast Bulletin can be downloaded from this page.
The next update of these figures is due on Tuesday 23rd January 2024.
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